Chelsea Analysis

The Nou Camp, Munich, Leicester City and even humble Lincoln City have shown us that anything can happen in football.

After all predictable football would be boring.

As Chelsea enter the final moments of a tied match, there’s no doubt that there’s plenty of anticipation that comes with not knowing if we can score the game-winning goal. At the beginning of the season, there’s no way to tell which team is going take the title in each league, but researching trends and recent records will definitely indicate who the favourites are. While the exact actions that take place in a match can’t be predicted, betting specialists and football analysts agree that the sport may be more predictable than ever in terms of the teams that are most likely to win and the players who are most likely to score.

Viewing the Sport from a Betting Perspective

If you’re betting on a match, it’s probably a good thing that the sport is predictable, because that means an informed bet maker has a good chance of winning. However, those who choose to bet on the under dogs will also stand to gain more when their team does win. With people using virtual betting platforms like free bets UK to place bets conveniently online, the practice of betting on matches is becoming more popular than ever. Plus, people who bet online also typically follow the latest football news and stay on top of developments in their favourite leagues, so they’re more likely to place winning bets than offline bet makers who are often less informed and less savvy.

Consolidated Power Results in More Consistent Outcomes

Perhaps the primary reason why Europe’s top leagues are becoming more predictable is because there are certain powerhouse teams that are just consistently getting better. Some teams just have more money, better management, and better players, and so as they say, “the rich get richer.”

A winning team is more likely to attract star players, and successful clubs are also good at finding and recruiting the best talent. As the stronger teams become increasingly stronger and the weakest teams continue to struggle, the consolidation of power into super clubs is making for a more predictable, yet possibly more exciting field of play in UK football.

Taking Advantage of the Sport’s Predictability

In a soccer match, there are only three possible outcomes – win, lose, or draw. That means any person betting on a game has a roughly 33% chance of having things go their way, but that percentage increases or decreases depending on the teams involved and circumstances surrounding the match. This differs from other common betting sports like horse racing, where there are many different possible winners. It also means that a person who is knowledgeable about the sport has a good chance of picking winners most of the time.

If you take into account the fact that about a third of the time the match ends in a draw, it’s no wonder that many users of sites like Free Bets are able to enjoy repeat winnings. Studying a team’s past stats can show you a lot of things – from how many points they’re likely to score to how probable it is for them to have a draw. With knowledge of the sport’s predictability, many bet makers looking for bookies on Free Bets are able to maintain a high rate of success in choosing winning teams.

Ratings and Ticket Sales Still High

Despite the predictability of several prominent European leagues, and the increasing analysis of stats and records that allow experts to give such accurate advice, people are still tuning into the matches to see who wins for themselves. In fact, if anything the heightened predictability is good for football’s economy because, as mentioned earlier, it creates powerhouse clubs, happy bet makers and investors, and it’s fun for fans to rally behind dominant teams.

Losing the FA Cup Final to Arsenal was a disappointing end to the season for Chelsea fans, leaving everyone deflated despite an excellent season.

With the victory parade cancelled due to safety concerns (something we totally understand), we had to rely on the end of season awards to bounce back as a club and continue the celebrations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i16V3Gb8L9s

The Cup Final

Losing a cup final is never ideal, it appeared that the last two weeks of relaxation and celebration had left the players heavy-legged and lacking the fire and passion that had driven the club forward for most of the season.

On the day Arsenal were the better team, a phrase that sticks in the throat, the game could easily have been over by half-time and it was only great defending by Gary Cahill and poor finishing that denied the Gunners.

Second half we showed more grit, but the sending off of Victor Mosts made the task almost impossible. Despite the equaliser of Diego Costa it still felt like we would be denied.

Moments later Arsenal regained their lead and with it the trophy.

Looking Forwards

When looking for silver linings, it looks like Arsene Wenger will stay, which means that we can look forward to plenty of drama on Arsenal Fan TV in the coming months.

With the season over we move on, now the transfer window is poised to open and the rumour mill will kick into gear. Over that summer period, we must remember that we are Champions, not defeated finalists.

Because in less than 80 days the season starts up again and we will be desperate to put up a better title defence than we did during 2014/2015.

Much of that may depend on the futures of Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas, we would be ok with either of them leaving, providing we can get similar ability replacements. Given their records this may be easier said than done.

Until then Champions of England we know what we are!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOAongRYyPw

Before a knee injury ruled him out for almost a year Kurt Zouma was well on his way to establishing himself as a cult hero at Stamford Bridge.

After 11 months out he made his return against Peterborough United, starting and finishing what turned out to be an entertaining stroll for a rotated Chelsea squad.

Having Zouma back gives Antonio Conte a high-quality centre-back to compete with David Luiz, Gary Cahill, Cesar Azpilicueta and John Terry. Removing the need to dip into the January transfer window despite the ongoing rumours.

Before his injury Zouma looked set to push Gary Cahill out of the starting line-up or Stamford Bridge altogether, however the heart of the Chelsea defence has changed almost beyond recognition during his time on the sidelines.

Antonio Conte now plays three in the centre of defence giving more opportunities within the line up. However now he must compete with the return of David Luiz and the movement of Cesar Azpilicueta into the central defensive trio.

Will Zouma Get In The Chelsea Team?

Chelsea have gone on a great run with a defence of Cahill, Luiz and Azipilcueta and it will be tough to break that partnership.

Competition for places will be fierce, but with time I am backing the Frenchman to oust Gary Cahill and consign John Terry to retirement. This may sound like a negative but it gives the Blues perfect succession planning. Replacing Terry was never going to be easy but it looks like we have the foundations set.

This may sound like a negative but it gives the Blues perfect succession planning. Replacing Terry was never going to be easy but it looks like we have the foundations set.

The return of Zouma is more than a boost to the current squad but also to the clubs balance sheet. After a cash windfall from selling Oscar a defender was rumoured to be high on the list.

His return means this can be postponed to the summer at the earliest when prices will be more reasonable and the Blues can take their time to identify the right target. So it is safe to assume that the return of Zouma may have saved the club millions in the short term.

We will find out tomorrow if Chelsea winning 14 Premier League games in a row will become a reality. It would be an incredible record, but let’s stay focused. The most important thing is that victory would put Chelsea 8 points clear at the top of the table.

Whilst the record of Chelsea winning 14 Premier League games in a row would be nice the points are more important.

If we win then we will stride further away from the back, but if we lose there will be four teams almost within touching distance.

Confident Of Getting A Result?

Given our form it is possible to be over-confident, winning has become a habit after all. If we play the way we have been recently we have a huge chance of getting the points.

However, the game is far from a foregone conclusion, Spurs are playing decent football at the moment and getting the right result will be a real challenge.

All of our core of players will be available and Antonio Conte will have the choice between Nemanja Matic and Cesc Fabregas. Playing away from home the logic is that Matic will get the nod, however I trust Conte’s judgement either way.

Tottenham Fans Looking For Revenge

Tottenham fans are getting quite excited about the opportunity to end our run and get revenge for last season.

That is one narrative although I will be hoping Blues fans will be crowing breaking the record against a rival.  I am sure that whoever wins will go to great lengths to remind their rivals for years to come.

The record is not the most important thing, it certainly would be sweet to go 8 points clear and break a Premier League record in the process.

Whatever happens tomorrow Chelsea will hold the record for most consecutive Premier League wins, it would be better not to share the honour with Arsenal though.

There are 30-40 professional footballers that should take heart from seeing Victor Moses wing back role for Chelsea. Seeing Moses bursting up and down the wing for the Blues is a beacon that joining Chelsea is not footballing pergatory for everyone.

He gives youth products hope that being sent out on loan does not mean they will not get a chance at Chelsea.

Moses joined Chelsea when we were Champions of Europe and Wigan were still in the Premier League. I remember travelling to Wigan for our league fixture against them and Moses being serendaded with “Victor Moses we’ll see you next week” as rumours he was joining Chelsea grew.

Victor Moses An Eternity On Loan

He played a bit part role under Roberto Di Matteo and then the other manager that year as we won the Europa League. With the arrival of Jose Mourinho he was deemed surplus to requirements and sent out on loan to Liverpool.

Two more seasons of loan spells followed, despite Moses showing flashes of talent during every pre-season. He must have been feeling this time a year ago that his career at Chelsea was over.  Then last season happened and Antonio Conte became manager and Moses got his customary pre-season chance and took it.

Convincing Conte he had something to offer and surviving the annual loan farming that occurs.

Victor Moses Wing Back Born

Moses started the season as an impact substitute coming on for the last 15-20 minutes of the odd game. The defeat to Arsenal forced Conte into a tactical rethink and “Victor Moses Wing Back” was born.

Since then CHelsea have played 6 Premier League games without conceding and Moses has been ever present. He has been the break out player of the 3-4-3 formation with a perfect defensive record supplemented by one goal and one assist.

It looks like Moses is now the first name on the team sheet and growing with every game, his attitude seems perfect. Young Chelsea players should look to him as an example of patience and the right mental attitude.

See Victor Moses season stats here – http://www.espnfc.co.uk/player/112547/victor-moses

After hearing of crisis meetings at Chelsea late into the night after defeat by Liverpool and the reaction of some Chelsea fans, you would think we have been transported back 10 months when Mourinho’s second era was in its death throes.

A draw against Swansea and defeat to Liverpool at home are not ideal results but they are hardly apocalyptic considering where we are in the season.

We absolutely murdered Swansea but gave away the game with two individual areas. Against Liverpool, we got what our play deserved. We allowed Liverpool to execute their game plan and have a weak argument that we deserved much more than we got.

Avoid Endemic Short Term Thinking

Short term thinking is a disease within top-level football. Clubs sack managers after a slight hiccup and fans of all teams seem to turn on their team after just a result or two. Just look at the pressure on Mourinho after one bad week at Manchester United, two weeks ago he was a god now there is talk that he is past it.

Just look at the pressure on Mourinho after one bad week at Manchester United, two weeks ago he was a god now there is talk that he is past it.

We should be two points ahead of where we currently and that ignores the late shows against West Ham and Watford, that added points to the total despite struggling.

We are five games into the season and we are in the mix at the top of the table, Antonio Conte has barely had time to get his feet under the table so give him time. This does not mean that we were not shouting our throats horse when he refused to make any changes as things disintegrated against Liverpool, but we need to take a more rational view after the passion of game day subsides.

Are we a better team than we were last season? Ask me in other 5-10 Premier League games as things start to become clearer.

Despite a new system it is clear that Chelsea need Cesc Fabregas, even if he may no longer be part of Antonio Conte’s first choice XI.

Therefore it is reassuring that Fabregas has of his own volition rubbished reports that have surfaced linking him with a move away from the Bridge and the idea that Conte had told him he was not needed.

In a faster and physical Premier League Fabregas is a little bit of a luxury, but he offers something different that Chelsea will need over the course of a long season.

Why Chelsea Need Cesc Fabregas

The Premier League moves fast and teams quickly figure out sides that play the same way for an extended period of time. Chelsea need Cesc Fabregas to provide the tactical flexibility that will be vital over a 38 game season.

Fabregas may not start every game but he will start many, and even where he doesn’t from the bench he will have a significant role to play. He is still at the top of his game in that creative attacking midfield position.

His role will be to break down teams where two defensive midfielders shifting the ball to the flanks quickly will not work. We have already seen him provide the perfect pass for Diego Costa against Watford. Just three games in there are points won that can be directly attributed to his contribution.

Contrary to what has been written, the manager and I have a good relationship and he has NEVER told me that I can leave. He said…/ctd

— Cesc Fàbregas Soler (@cesc4official) August 28, 2016

…/ctd that he counts on me, as I count on him. I will continue to fight for this club until the very end and when called upon …/ctd

— Cesc Fàbregas Soler (@cesc4official) August 28, 2016

…/ctd I will always give my very best. I'm fully committed to @ChelseaFC and my only goal is to help them win football matches.

— Cesc Fàbregas Soler (@cesc4official) August 28, 2016

Will Chelsea Need Cesc Fabregas Long Term

Whilst Fabregas states that he is happy and ready to fight for his place it will be interesting to see how the dust settles over the course of the season. How much game time he will get and how he will feel about a diminished role should that become the status quo.

For now though we will be happy to hear that Fabregas is going nowhere.